In this article, CPO Director Alasdair Lowe considers the latest problems facing HS2.

It’s a weekday and so there have been yet more doubts about HS2 with fresh rumours circulating about viability and deliverability.  In recent weeks the Department for Transport have spoken about ‘tough decisions’ that will need to be made over the coming weeks in relation to the beleaguered project – and independent financial reports, such as that from Think Tank Policy Exchange written by former No.10 transport advisor Andrew Gilligan, are suggesting radical action.

Thinking is now that the economic case for HS2, given the rising costs, is now wavering on a knife edge, and that bringing the construction costs down by simply not starting on areas where building is yet to begin, is the answer. The logic to this being that the economic benefit is down to 90p for every £1 spent, and as such, we need to bring the cost down. 

However, one of these solutions is stopping HS2 at Old Oak Common, and then having users take the Elizabeth Line in to central London, and then using all of the land compulsorily purchased around the original proposed terminus to develop and recoup some losses. 

This is troubling on two bases. 

Firstly if it stops at Old Oak Common, people will need to take the underground network into central London. The fastest option would be the Elizabeth Line, which would get to Liverpool Street in 15 minutes (which is not counting time spent transferring from one to the other). This puts a considerable dent into the attractiveness of HS2 as an option for transport into the nation’s capital.  A significant enough dent to warrant thinking, ‘well what’s the bloody point, then?!’  It also calls into question the logical basis of Mr Gilligan’s calculations, as by saving on construction, you are also damaging the economic benefit – but that’s a side thought for the moment.  

Secondly, there is a slightly more technical issue at play. HS2 derives its CPO powers from a Hybrid Bill, and these are very much unique beasts when it comes to the compensation elements – as they are their own laws and can sort of do what they like. However, there is an issue of principle at stake over this.   

When a property is purchased through a CPO, it is an onerous interference with a private right and therefore the accepted logic has to be that a defined scheme in the public benefit will come out of the whole business. However, with a watered down – to the point of irrelevant –  scheme, and purchased land around Euston potentially just going to build yet more commercial property where there was already lots of viable commercial property in any case, does call into question the suitability of the Hybrid Bill process, when political actors are delivering on a political issue. 

This is all conjecture at this point, of course, and no decision has been published on precisely what will be done. However, with DfT making dire warnings and no one in government actually denying the recent reports, which have now made it as far as the BBC – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64421566 – it may be that tin hats are now being donned in Whitehall in preparation for the delivery of some sort of unpopular news. 

Alasdair Lowe is a Director at Newsteer, specialising in valuation and compulsory purchase. He works both with acquiring authorities and landowners, across all property types from industrial to offices, and from residential to retail and leisure. Key schemes he has represented clients against include HS2, Heathrow Runway 3, East West Rail, the Birmingham Commonwealth Games and various Highways England widening schemes.